UPDATE: See our predictions & the full list of nominees
Click here to view our complete coverage of the 2016 Tony Awards
Last year, we correctly predicted 22 of the 24 Tony Award winners, more than any other theater publication. This year, we are starting our Tony Awards analysis early. While the awards won’t be announced until June 5th, we are going to go through each show we have had the pleasure of seeing, and indicate which awards we feel they might be nominated for in April. We will continue to update this page as we see new shows.
Hamilton
If Hamilton lands a nomination in each of the categories listed below, it would tie The Producers (2001) & Billy Elliot, The Musical (2009) for the record of most Tony Award nominations in a single year. Since there is a long season ahead with many competing musicals yet to open, it is unlikely that Hamilton will be able to pull off all of the nominations below.
The Tony Awards Eligibility Committee, which will likely meet sometime in November, will play a big role in determining Hamilton’s fate. The categorizations that may be in contention are both Leslie Odom Jr. and Phillipa Soo’s eligibility as either leading or featured actor/actress. At last year’s Lucille Lortel Awards, Odom and Soo were both considered to be playing lead roles, whereas the Drama Desk awards gave Odom a nomination for featured actor. Our guess is that both will be considered lead roles for the Tony Awards.UPDATE NOVEMBER 2015: Leslie Odom Jr. and Phillipa Soo have both been considered eligible as leads in Hamilton for Tony Nominations.
Finally, we know the Tony committee has considered re-instating the Tony Award for Sound Design. If this award is re-instated for 2016, Hamilton’s Nevin Steinberg will surely be considered for nomination.
Best Musical
Actor in a Leading Role: Lin-Manuel Miranda (Alexander Hamilton); Leslie Odom Jr. (Aaron Burr)
Actress in a Leading Role: Phillipa Soo (Eliza Hamilton)
Actor in a Featured Role: Daveed Diggs (Lafayette/Jefferson); Christopher Jackson (George Washington); Jonathan Groff (King George).
Actress in a Featured Role: Renée Elise Goldsberry (Angelica Shuyler)
Score: Lin-Manuel Miranda
Book: Lin-Manuel Miranda
Director: Thomas Kail
Choreography: Andy Blankenbuehler
Orchestrations: Alex Lacamoire
Scenic: David Korins
Costumes: Paul Tazewell
Lighting: Howell Binkley
6 comments
Join the conversationGail Ryder - January 8, 2016
Why isn’t A View From the Bridge on this list yet? It is in the top ten of finest Broadway shows I’ve ever seen, and I’ve seen a lot of shows. The direction, acting and setting were absolutely stunning.
Oliver - January 18, 2016
Hey Gail, A View From the Bridge isn’t on there because I haven’t seen it yet! Rest assured, it will be included as soon as I see it.
Carmine - March 28, 2016
Why wouldn’t the Voice of Moritz, Alex Boniello be considered, whereas Katie Boeck, the Voice of Wendla is? Also, why isn;t Sandra given consideration for actress lead?
As the Voice of Moritz, Alex had to sing, play guitar, act, move props, give numerous prompts, had to learn sign language…
Oliver - April 21, 2016
Hi Carmine,
Alex gave an unbelievable performance as the Voice of Moritz, for sure. The reason I did not include him on this list is that the field for Best Actor in a Featured Role of a Musical this year is EXTREMELY competitive, and, to be honest, Alex’s chances of breaking into the already really crowded pack for his performance in a musical which has already closed are really slim. You are going to have 2-3 nominees from Hamilton (Daveed & Chris Jackson both being locks), and probably one from the highly stacked and talented Shuffle Along cast. That leaves only one, or POSSIBLY two (in the case of a tie as happened last year) open slots for a dark horse like Alex to make it into the race, and with the talent we are seeing this spring, I think Alex is going to have a rough time breaking into the list of nominees.
Dolores - April 2, 2017
Bette Midler a shoo-in for Hello Dolly? Why? Because she’s Bette Midler doing Bette Midler as Dolly?
Have you actually seen Glenn Close in the new Sunset Boulevard production? It’s been a long, long time since I sat in a Broadway musical audience and actually felt the character up there on the stage. She carries it through the entire performance, Norma fully drawn. Truly special. And heartbreaking.
(And yes, I’m a huge Bette Midler fan, and love that she’s doing this. But she’s just Bette up there–no small thing, but not much serious acting going on.) (With all due respect.)
Oliver - April 2, 2017
Hi Dolores,
Yes, the thought is that Bette Midler is a shoo-in because she is Bette Midler as Dolly and that has a lot of buzz as of right now. We haven’t seen the production yet so that can always change.
I saw Sunset last week and Glenn Close is absolutely phenomenal. However, as per Tony Awards eligibility rules, she is ineligible for a nomination as she has received a Tony Award for the same role previously in the 1995 production. So, while I agree the performance is one of the best on Broadway this year, we can be sure she will not receive a nomination.
Michael Riedel wrote a nice article a few weeks ago about Glenn Close and Jake Gyllenhaal, who both would normally be certain to receive Tony nods for their performances, but are ineligible to do so. Here’s the link if you’d like to give it a read: http://nypost.com/2017/02/16/broadways-two-best-performances-cant-win-tonys/